BEACON - D5.1 First tactical model and results

The deliverable presents the results obtained with the help of the Mercury simulator in order to estimate the efficiency and equitability of hotspot resolution mechanisms defined in D3.1 and tested on a small-scale simulator in D4.2. To this end, fast-time games are defined, with a central optimiser implementing the mechanisms computing the final flight/slot allocation. The game is played by agents representing the airlines present in the regulation, and who are tasked with sending information to the central optimiser regarding their own costs, in order for the latter to find the best possible allocation cost-wise. The deliverable defines the various games possible, combining different types of central optimisers and different types of agents, taking into account various degrees of rationality and behavioural biases for the decisions of the latter. The deliverable presents a theoretical framework for these behaviours, highly simplified but implementable in simple simulations. Different results with these simulations are presented. First, it is found that the approximation process used by airlines to communicate their costs to the optimiser has a major effect on the efficiency of the mechanisms. Second, it is found that, due to the variance of the regulation structure and the approximation issues, defining a performant rational agent is difficult. Despite this fact, the deliverable shows how one of the mechanisms (credit mechanism) was calibrated, including the rationality of agents in the corresponding game. It then shows the detrimental impact of the presence of rational agents – as opposed to honest ones – on the efficiency of two relevant optimisers, including the credit mechanism, as well as the impact of behavioural biases. Finally, it compares the aggregated gains potentially made with the various mechanisms in terms of efficiency and equit

Network-wide assessment of 4D trajectory adjustments using an agent-based model

This paper presents results from the SESAR ER3 Domino project. It focuses on an ECAC-wide assessment of two 4D-adjustment mechanisms, implemented separately and conjointly. These reflect flight behaviour en-route and at-gate, optimising given (cost) objective functions. New metrics designed to capture network effects are used to analyse the results of a microscopic, agent based model. The results show that some implementations of the mechanisms allow the protection of the network from ‘domino’ effects. Airlines focusing on costs may trigger additional side-effects on passengers, displaying, in some instances, clear trade-offs between passenger- and flight-centric metrics

Strategic allocation of flight plans in air traffic management: an evolutionary point of view

We present a simplified model of the strategic allocation of trajectories in a generic airspace for commercial flights. In this model, two types of companies, characterised by different cost functions and different strategies, compete for the allocation of trajectories in the airspace. With an analytical model and numerical simulations, we show that the relative advantage of the two populations -- companies -- depends on external factors like traffic demand as well as on the composition of the population. We show that there exists a stable equilibrium state which depends on the traffic demand. We also show that the equilibrium solution is not the optimal at the global level, but rather that it tends to favour one of the two business models -- the archetype for low-cost companies. Finally, linking the cost of allocated flights with the fitness of a company, we study the evolutionary dynamics of the system, investigating the fluctuations of population composition around the equilibrium and the speed of convergence towards it. We prove that in the presence of noise due to finite populations, the equilibrium point is shifted and is reached more slowly

D6.1 Intermediate concept assessment report

This Technical Report presents an interim synthesis of the stakeholders' input and the specifications stemming from internal discussions and the stakeholder workshop. It presents the main issues related to the concepts attached to the mechanisms selected in D3.1, for instance in terms of market mechanism design. Following the output of these discussions, some specifications for the project, and sometimes for the models, are laid out

D3.1 High-level modelling requirements

This document provides all the necessary high-level modelling requirements needed for the proper development of the BEACON project. Firstly, it defines an assessment framework for the performance evaluation of the different flight prioritisations mechanisms selected. The suggested framework is based on a combination of desk research and consultation with different air traffic management (ATM) stakeholder representatives. Secondly, it provides a detailed and exhaustive review of the flight prioritisation and trajectory allocation mechanisms proposed in the literature, ultimately identifying and selecting a final set of promising concepts to improve the performance of the ATM system in situations of demand-capacity constraints, to be included in BEACON simulations. Finally, it describes the different variables and parameters that are part of the possible simulation scenarios and selects the potentially most interesting combinations to measure the performance of the proposed prioritisation mechanisms

The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users

This article highlights the importance of uncertainty in day-to-day operations, and the need to take it into account to properly assess the cost of delay for airspace users. It defines a cost of uncertainty and estimates it using real data. It provides some easily computable models based on the average and standard deviation of delay to estimate the cost of delay in general. The article shows that uncertainty is also important in the formulation of buffers for airlines and provides a simple model to estimate the optimal assignment, further using real data to compute the optimal value at different airports

Vista D6.3 - Stakeholder consultation on initial assessment

This deliverable contains the summary of consultation activities carried out by Vista to validate and obtain feedback on the first results obtained from the model. Consultation activities have been conducted in different forums (workshop/conferences) and with a dedicated consultation to targeted experts and stakeholders. The deliverable contains the main findings from these consultation activities and the next steps to finalise the development of Vista’s model and the production of the final results considering the feedback obtained

Pilot3 crew multi-criteria decision support tool estimating performance indicators and uncertainty

When a flight’s operational conditions change (e.g., an updated weather forecast), various alternative trajectories may be computed. These usually require trade-offs between expected fuel burn and delay. The pilot, or the dispatcher, considers these expected values to decide how to operate the flight. This approach has two main challenges. Firstly, it requires the translation of arrival delay into parameters that are relevant for the airline (on-time performance and cost of delay). Secondly, uncertainties in the system need to be estimated (e.g., holding at arrival). These estimations rely on airline staff expertise. Pilot3 sets out to overcome these issues by developing a new, multi-criteria decision-support tool, which incorporates explicit estimators for performance indicators and ATM operational parameters. These estimators will be developed incrementally, from simple heuristics to advanced machine-learning models, building on previous experience

D4.1: Gaps, bottlenecks and results: the methodology

This deliverable presents the methodology that CAMERA will follow to produce an overview of the European transportation research field. This methodology is based on the analysis carried out, and, planned in WP3, including the output of the cluster analysis presented in D3.1 and D5.3

CAMERA – Mobility Report 1

This report is a result of research performed so far in the scope of the CAMERA Coordination and Support Action (CSA). In CAMERA, we investigate research initiatives from the past decade that focus on the European air transport system and its integration with other transport modes, with a special focus on addressing the customer experience and point of view. The focus of this report is the review of the research under FP7 and its successor, H2020, as these have supported a large number of research activities in air mobility in the last decade. Its objective is to analyse 158 selected research initiatives in European mobility research to determine their coverage of mobility challenges, identify potential gaps and form recommendations for future research initiatives. This is the first of four Annual Mobility Reports that CAMERA is planning to publish. It outlines the initial findings and describes the future efforts of this Coordination and Support Action